Thursday, March 24, 2011

Rankings, ranklings, and hankerings.

A couple weeks ago or so I opined about which teams will finish last in each division this year. Let's take a quick look at how my guesses compared to the recently-released predictions of Buster Olney in ESPN: The Magazine. I didn't guess team's records, but The Magazine did, so I'll show those in parenthesis.

AL East:
My pick - Toronto Blue Jays (79-83)
Their pick - Baltimore Orioles (77-85)

The reason I went with the Blue Jays to lose the battle of the birds is vindicated by something The Mag wrote in their synopsis:

The real drama could be at the bottom of the division, where the Orioles—who brought on slick-fielding shortstop J.J. Hardy, 40-home run threat Mark Reynolds and nine-time All-Star Vladimir Guerrero this off-season—might have the goods to snap a 13-year streak of losing seasons, longest in the AL.

Yeah, I didn't go with the idea of "might," but rather "will."

AL Central:
My pick - Kansas City Royals
Their pick - Kansas City Royals (69-93)

I love it when that happens. I have to mention, though, that this could be the last time in a long time the Royals finish last. They have stocked up such a tremendous trove of talent—both through trades, and by great player development—that they could realistically start to contend as soon as next year. And when they do, I expect them to continue to do so for years to come.

AL West:
My pick - Seattle Mariners
Their pick - Seattle Mariners (70-92)

So when do I start getting paid for this stuff?

NL East:
My pick - New York Mets (79-83)
Their pick - Washington Nationals (73-89)

The Mag actually picked the Mets to finish third, above the Marlins and the Nationals. This is just crazy. I have a tremendous amount of respect for Buster Olney. He is one of the most balanced and level-headed baseball guys out there. But what are you thinking, Buster? The Marlins have one of the best—and obviously under-rated—rotations in the game. The Nationals certainly are no threat to make a surprise run at a division title, but they are really pretty average. They have a maybe-a-tick-below OK pitching staff and above average (although not by much) offense, which means to me that they finish just below .500, in my opinion.

The Mets, on the other hand, are one jacked up bunch. They have no ace (or at least not until mid-summer when Johan Santana is expected to return), they just released their second baseman, José Reyes Luis Castillo, to whom they still owe six million dollars, and their ownership group is under constant scrutiny due to their involvement with that rapscallion Bernie Madoff.

In my defense, he has the Mets finishing only six games out of the cellar.

NL Central:
My pick - Houston Astros
Their pick - Houston Astros (69-93)

I would say that I don't mean to brag, if only it were true. Olney says:

The Astros have been teetering on the edge of disaster for years and could finish last for the first time since 1991. That would mean progress for the Pirates.

Which is exactly what I said. Kind of.

NL West:
My pick - Arizona Diamondbacks
Their pick - Arizona Diamondbacks (73-89)

As my cousin once wrote, "I don't know much, and much of what I do know, I only think I know," but I like how I did against one of baseball's best banterers. Four identical picks, one close one, and one head-scratcher.

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I love it when managers say things on the record that they probably shouldn't really say. Like a couple years ago when White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen said that he pukes every time he goes to Wrigley Field (as they do once a year as part of inter-league play to take on the Chicago Cubs). Well just yesterday in the April edition of Mens Journal, Orioles manager Buck Showalter (and former Yankees manager, it is worth noting) didn't have anything nice to say about their division foe Yankees, and specifically had this to say about Boston Red Sox' off-season acquisitions:

You got Carl Crawford 'cause you paid more than anyone else, and that's what makes you smarter? That's why I like whipping their butt. It's great, knowing those guys with the $205 million payroll are saying, "How the hell are they beating us?"

Ahhhh yes.

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Spring Training is about to give way to the whole raison d'être there's Spring Training in the first place. Major League Baseball's season opens on March 31st featuring six games. The Rockies start the following day, at home, against the Diamondbacks, with me in attendance. That's a week from tomorrow. Already I'm checking the forecast, and it's looking lovely. 70º and sunny. And I'll probably start out with a Maharaja Imperial India Pale Ale on tap from FreshCraft or The Falling Rock Tap House. Not that I'm putting too much thought into it or anything.

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