My predictions for each division's cellar dwellers.

It's not that I wallow in underachievement. And I certainly don't get off on other folks' misfortunes. But I was thinking today about predictions. About how all the big timers will put forward their carefully culled predictions for each division's finishers, from top to bottom. Most will jibe with the others, save for a couple disagreements here and there. And they will be close, generally, when the year ends, in their predictions. Because they have the capacity to send minions of reporters to each team's Spring Training facility—to Arizona, and Florida, and then back to Arizona, followed by one last stint in Florida—to do their highly calculated research—in person, most importantly—about which player may improve, recede, surprise, astonish, frustrate, etc.

But this nascent blog does not possess such fortitude. No, this blog has to go on good, old-fashioned guts. As in, gut feelings. And so it is with those feelings of the gut that I put forth my predictions of who will end up at the bottom of the rung. Yeah, it's a bit of a cop out. But it's still a prediction. And until The Banter of One can afford to send minions back and forth between Florida and Arizona, and forth and back, this is what we have to work with.

We shall start with the American League (I, for as long as I can remember, have liked to save the best for last).

AL East (See what I did there?): This one's gonna come down to two teams: Baltimore and Toronto. Bittersweet, too, because both are good. This is, hands down, the most miserable division in all of baseball, from a parity standpoint. That is simply not debatable. This is a division in which, last year, the fourth (fourth) place team finished eight games above .500. I don't see that changing in 2011(well, maybe the number of games above or below .500 will, but you know what I mean). But I do see the dweller at the bottom changing. Last year it was Baltimore. This year, it will be Toronto. In recent years, Toronto has had no problem scoring runs, but Baltimore won't this year, either, with the addition of Vladimir Guerrero, Derek Lee, and Mark Reynolds. Sure, the Jays still have last year's AL home run champion in Jose Bautista, but I don't see that being enough.
Dweller of the Bottom: Toronto Blue Jays

AL Central: This is a tough division to predict, too. Zack Greinke has left KC for Milwaukee and the more pitcher-friendly national league, but yet it's still a two horse race between Cleveland and the Royals. And it's closer than beans and corn bread. I'm having a tough time getting my hands around whose offense is worse, or whose rotation is worse. In other words: neither is very good. But I think it's gonna be the Royals who get the nod. They just don't have enough of either. And Cleveland has some guys who can mash. Like Shin-Soo Choo. And if Carlos Santana remains healthy and stays on the vaunted baseball trajectory he's been projected to ride, guy's gonna hit. And then there's the Grady Sizemore situation. He swears he's coming back to his old form this year. So it is that I go with the Royals to end up at the bottom.
Dweller of the Bottom: Kansas City Royals

AL West: This one's gonna come back and bite me, I worry. Cuz it just feels so easy. It's gonna be the Mariners. I don't see any way around it. The Angels aren't much better than they were last year because of a net subtraction during the offseason (Hello. My name is Vernon Wells.). But they didn't suck last year. They didn't compete like everyone thought they would, but they didn't suck. The A's are way better because of a great young pitching staff, and a guy nicknamed Godzilla. And the Rangers went to the World Series last year. So I'm going with the Mariners, but I really worry about the Los Angeles Angels. Partly because the reigning Cy Young winner still plays for the Mariners and I'm pretty sure he gets better run support than he did last year.

Dweller of the Bottom: Seattle Mariners

NL East: I don't see how we keep the Mets out of the cellar this year. The imbroglio surrounding their ownership situation, not to mention their lack of starting pitching and offense, really hamstrings them. I don't even know what else to say. I guess Washington could pose somewhat of a threat, but that's patently unlikely.

Dweller of the Bottom: New York Metropolitans

NL Central: It is with great pleasure that I predict that the Pirates do NOT finish last in the division. Nope. Houston has its own ownership issues to deal with this year (though they pale in comparison to the Mets and Dodgers), and really are dilapidated, both on the mound and at the plate. Plus, their projected starting catcher, just today, was likely lost for the season.

Dweller of the Bottom: Houston Astros

NL West: Similar to the West in the AL, I'm worried here. The obvious choice is Arizona. They're fortified offensively, no doubt, by subtraction. They lead the league in strike outs last year, and the culprits have gone to other pastures. But no pasture is without manure. And the manure in this lineup is inconsistency. Same with the pitching corps. New manager Kirk Gibson is super psyched about new closer JJ Putz, but my question is, what is the advantage of having a great closer if you never have the lead going into the ninth? But hold on. I'm not sure the Padres won't challenge the DBacks. They lost a starting pitcher. But more importantly, they lost one of the best left-handed hitters in the business in Adrian Gonzalez. So there's no one to protect in their lineup. That gives opposing pitchers more leverage and latitude. Plus, last year's surprise ace, Mat Latos, kind of nose-dived at the end. I just don't see it being a great year for them. But I reckon it won't be that bad.

Dweller of the Bottom: Arizona Diamondbacks

Just you watch, I'll probably strike out on every count. Yeah, that pun was intended. But what if I hit a home run? Can't say I won't say I told ya so.